Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.465737 2.605219 2.755878 2.932143 3.134659 3.362563 3.642210
2025-03-16 2.242446 2.424745 2.632344 2.890779 3.210933 3.605325 4.147772
2025-03-23 2.144791 2.356966 2.607933 2.935406 3.366626 3.941874 4.827135
2025-03-30 2.023606 2.244852 2.512503 2.872019 3.364492 4.058544 5.221620
2025-04-06 1.921005 2.145471 2.421483 2.800298 3.335178 4.123065 5.544742
2025-04-13 1.844748 2.072701 2.357128 2.755259 3.333676 4.223425 5.958917
2025-04-20 1.811869 2.051569 2.356405 2.794451 3.456311 4.540194 6.932529
2025-04-27 1.798859 2.054155 2.385746 2.876688 3.653746 5.031174 8.671645
2025-05-04 1.759717 2.019950 2.362413 2.879182 3.722577 5.303094 10.144854
2025-05-11 1.724394 1.988741 2.340798 2.881488 3.790081 5.590484 12.143055
2025-05-18 1.669741 1.929258 2.276507 2.813562 3.726796 5.579349 12.897038
2025-05-25 1.637787 1.899073 2.251885 2.805083 3.768200 5.818543 15.632997
2025-06-01 1.605625 1.868641 2.227171 2.797537 3.816134 6.106344 20.508640
2025-06-08 1.566418 1.827241 2.184921 2.759233 3.802055 6.235606 25.700806
2025-06-15 1.552501 1.819886 2.191261 2.799582 3.945374 6.861926 73.346778
2025-06-22 1.512837 1.775290 2.140838 2.742279 3.884581 6.853236 135.532373
2025-06-29 1.473240 1.729722 2.087438 2.677270 3.802101 6.755666 253.975813
2025-07-06 1.442154 1.695276 2.049429 2.636354 3.766460 6.808183 NaN
2025-07-13 1.432942 1.691204 2.056382 2.671962 3.896905 7.501549 NaN
2025-07-20 1.433776 1.701221 2.084765 2.746504 4.126145 8.799335 NaN
2025-07-27 1.416959 1.685390 2.072874 2.748761 4.190183 9.456870 NaN
2025-08-03 1.400948 1.670225 2.061363 2.750848 4.254389 10.206988 NaN
2025-08-10 1.371023 1.634225 2.016337 2.689307 4.154018 9.911502 NaN